I'm not a math guy who wanted to try baseball forecasting. I'm a baseball bettor who got tired of doing the same homework by hand every single day.

I was spending hours before first pitch pulling pitcher splits, comparing bullpen numbers, checking weather, figuring out how lineups matched up against the opposing arm. Tabs everywhere. Spreadsheets that made no sense to anyone but me. It worked more often than not, but I was losing my mind doing it manually for 15 games a day.

So I built something that does it for me. Trained it on the same stats I was already looking at, 10 years of pitch-level data, and basically said “here's what I care about — go find what I'm missing.” It's not some black box AI thing. It's my process, automated and smarter than I am at 2am the night before a full slate.

Now I only need one tab open for every game, because I know it's showing me what I'm looking for. I still watch the games. I still have opinions. It just does the homework faster than I ever could.

Me and you.

We hate juice. I cannot stress this enough. A -200 favorite is never getting our money — I don't care if they're starting prime Pedro against a lineup of actual clowns. If the value isn't there, we pass. There are 2,400 games in a season, we don't need to force anything.

The model does the homework. I decide what to do with it. Not every pick it suggests is a pick I take — sometimes the numbers say one thing and the matchup context says another. The model doesn't watch the games. I do. It's a tool, not a boss. What you see here is everything the model flags, but how I personally play it might look different on any given day.

Rules are rules. We make someone beat us twice before we change anything around here. We don't chase, we don't panic after a bad night, and we definitely don't blow up the process because of one Sunday. Bad days happen. Bad weeks happen. The work stays the same.

The picks you see here are straight bets — individual plays tracked and sized on their own merit. That's how the model operates and how we measure performance. What you do with them is up to you. If you want to pair a few MLs together or build an SGP around a pick, go for it — just know the record and P&L we track is always straights.

We show everything. The wins, the losses, the days where the model finds zero edges and we sit on our hands. If the play's not there, it's not there. We're not going to manufacture confidence for content.

This isn't financial advice and I'm definitely not your financial advisor. If your financial advisor is telling you to bet baseball you should get a new one.

It's not a get-rich-quick scheme. It's not locks. It's not “guaranteed winners.”

Baseball is hard to bet on and sometimes the model is wrong. Sometimes I'm wrong on top of the model being wrong. That's the game. We do the homework, we trust the process, and we show up tomorrow.

Gamble responsibly. Only bet what you can afford to lose. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.