How It Works
Same pregame homework — pulling pitcher splits, comparing bullpen numbers, checking weather and lineups — just automated across 10 years of pitch data, for every game on the board.
The Data
Everything starts with pitch-level data from Baseball Savant — every pitch thrown in an MLB game since 2015. Velocity, movement, contact quality, how hard the ball was hit, where it went.
On top of that: park-neutral pitching and defensive grades from FanGraphs, game logs from Retrosheet for lineups and scores, live odds, and day-of weather.
No proprietary data. No secret sauce in the inputs. The same numbers any sharp bettor can pull up — just all of them, processed every day, before first pitch.
What It Looks At
Fifty data points per game, organized into five categories. Everything is rolling — recent performance weighted heavier than early-season numbers. No stale stats.
- Starting Pitching
- Velocity trends, whiff rate, expected run prevention. Is this arm sharp right now or coasting on reputation?
- Bullpen
- Reliever quality behind the starter. Workload matters — a good pen that threw 4 innings yesterday is a different pen today.
- Lineup
- Contact quality, barrel rate, how the lineup matches up against the opposing arm. Not just who's hitting — how hard and how often.
- Defense
- Fielding range, positioning, plays made above average. Runs saved are runs scored.
- Situational
- Park factor, weather, rest days, travel distance. The stuff that doesn't show up in a box score but moves the number.
Backtest Results
Five separate tests — each time trained on earlier seasons, then turned loose on a full year of games that were completely held out. No peeking, no adjustments after the fact.
| Training | Test Year | Games | Directional Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015–2020 | 2021 | 2,429 | 57.2% |
| 2015–2021 | 2022 | 2,430 | 58.9% |
| 2015–2022 | 2023 | 2,430 | 54.7% |
| 2015–2023 | 2024 | 2,429 | 56.0% |
| 2015–2024 | 2025 | 2,430 | 54.9% |
At standard -110 juice, breakeven is 52.4%. Consistent accuracy above that line, across five different test years, is the whole point.
2025 Blind Run
Every game of the 2025 season. Zero changes — same settings, same thresholds, no manual overrides. 2,430 games never seen during training.
Month-by-Month — 2025
Runs every day during the season. Every pick tracked, every outcome logged, every unit accounted for.
Questions? @DaftyDimes on X